18335 County Road 24

Plymouth, MN 55447

$470,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$589
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-738/mo
• Annual: $-8,853/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $131,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-738 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $293k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#17 in MN, #517 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Wayzata Public School District (urban): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 301 in MN (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $470k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Plymouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.