1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
696 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Manufactured
· Active
· 70 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,681/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$315
Tax + insurance
−$38
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$353
Net cashflow
$975/mo
Annual
$11,705/yr
Cap rate
25.80%
Cash-on-cash
69.67%
DSCR
4.10
1% rule
2.80%
Cash to close
$16,800
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#552 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime D-.
Rosedale Union Elementary (urban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #186 of 1,400 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KCY2TADT6PHYFN
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29