2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,348 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Condo
· Active
· 141 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,682/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$400
HOA
−$537
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$563
Net cashflow
$-77/mo
Annual
$-925/yr
Cap rate
5.91%
Cash-on-cash
-1.38%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (4.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Tara Elementary School (math 79% / reading 66%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 559 students, 52% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,682/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KD8NMGFEECNA1A
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29