Clayton 6 JV Rum Runner Plan

Sebring, FL 33872

$98,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 795 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$192
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $922/mo
• Annual: $11,070/yr
• Cap rate: 36.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.11%
• DSCR: 5.81
• 1% rule: 4.07%
• Cash to close: $10,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $252 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 36.6% vs local median 4.2% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.