1906 Stargazer Ln

Angleton, TX 77515

$230,340F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,922 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-394/mo
• Annual: $-4,726/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $83,721

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (0.6% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 921 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Angleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.