2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,268 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,412/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$265
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$297
Net cashflow
$90/mo
Annual
$1,080/yr
Cap rate
7.04%
Cash-on-cash
2.66%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (2.6% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $141k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
Johnstown City School District (town): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #509 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $145k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KDN2A62KH0TXA5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29