12054 Ashton Ave

Detroit, MI 48228

$79,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,165 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $334/mo
• Annual: $4,012/yr
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Henderson Academy (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,230 of 1,397 statewide, top 91%, 520 students, 91% FRL); Cody High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 466 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools at 89% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 367 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $1,331/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 4144% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.