47 Holly Ln

Crab Orchard, KY 40419

$110,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $224/mo
• Annual: $2,691/yr
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#397 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Crab Orchard Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 298 students, 77% FRL); Lincoln County Middle School (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 745 students, 67% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 951 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.