411 Ottawa Dr

Oscoda, MI 48750

$179,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,131/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#641 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richardson Elementary School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #725 of 1,397 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 68% FRL); Oscoda Area High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 477 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Oscoda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.