10 Sally Ln

Ridge, NY 11961

$950,000D

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,970 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Active · 528 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax + insurance: −$1,555
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,722
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-731/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $266,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-731/yr) — negative. Per door: $-20/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $939k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $820k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 528 days — a 12% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $820k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $950k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 528 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?