703 Fir Ln

Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$160,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,284/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $764/mo
• Annual: $9,162/yr
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.45%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.2% in Cottonwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.