2195 Joyner Pond Rd

Windsor, SC 29803

$192,500F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,308/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-297/mo
• Annual: $-3,566/yr
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.62%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $53,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (32.1% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#333 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakwood-Windsor Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #399 of 597 statewide, top 69%, 431 students, 100% FRL); M. B. Kennedy Middle (math 27% / reading 41%, grade F, #110 of 229 statewide, top 49%, 643 students, 51% FRL); South Aiken High (math 42% / reading 88%, grade B, #85 of 196 statewide, top 45%, 1,356 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 514 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $192k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.