845 Peyton Dr

Beaumont, TX 77706

$174,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,507/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$393
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,380/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Curtis El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 492 students, 55% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 711 students, 62% FRL); West Brook Sr H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,245 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.