407 N Douglas Ave

Margate City, NJ 08402

$1,699,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,820 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,874/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,914
• Tax + insurance: −$1,792
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,704
• Net cashflow: $-536/mo
• Annual: $-6,432/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $475,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.61M (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.29M (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.29M (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in NJ, #3,893 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Margate City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #113 of 472 in NJ (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: William H. Ross Iii School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 184 students, 4% FRL); Eugene A. Tighe Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #51 of 431 statewide, top 12%, 152 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $370k; list at $1.70M implies a 359% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $12,874/mo this rent would consume 127% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 23% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.