1525 Cold Springs Rd #67

Cold Springs, CA 95667

$85,000B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $778/mo
• Annual: $9,333/yr
• Cap rate: 17.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.21%
• DSCR: 2.74
• 1% rule: 2.03%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $778 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,305 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Gold Trail Union Elementary (rural): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #396 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.0% in Cold Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.