2413 Big Hill Rd

Berea, KY 40403

$90,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1992 · Other · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,343/yr
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.26%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#104 in KY, #4,354 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Elementary School (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 618 students, 50% FRL); Farristown Middle School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade C, #23 of 217 statewide, top 11%, 466 students, 48% FRL); Madison Southern High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,210 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $90k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.1% in Berea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.