178 School Ave

Jellico, TN 40769

$54,500B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$286
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $224/mo
• Annual: $2,686/yr
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.60%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $15,260

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($760 rent vs $54k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $377 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $404 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#352 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Boston Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 191 students, 86% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.3% in Jellico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.