7714 Walnut Ln

Mount Airy, MD 21771

$95,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $1,657/mo
• Annual: $19,887/yr
• Cap rate: 27.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.77%
• DSCR: 4.33
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#136 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $95k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 2.2% in Mount Airy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.