2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
896 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Other
· Pending
· 100 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$863/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$315
Tax + insurance
−$80
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$181
Net cashflow
$286/mo
Annual
$3,437/yr
Cap rate
12.02%
Cash-on-cash
20.46%
DSCR
1.91
1% rule
1.44%
Cash to close
$16,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($863 rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $775 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#489 in PA, #4,500 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $33k; list at $60k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 0.8% in Marshallton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KH539VBKRSKBE6
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29