5 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,598 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,937/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,360
Tax + insurance
−$750
HOA
−$61
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$617
Net cashflow
$-851/mo
Annual
$-10,210/yr
Cap rate
4.02%
Cash-on-cash
-8.10%
DSCR
0.64
1% rule
0.65%
Cash to close
$125,997
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-851 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (27.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (34.7% below list).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $294k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in TX, #3,880 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Anna ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #271 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Joe K Bryant El (math 45% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 626 students, 53% FRL); Anna Middle (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,089 students, 51% FRL); Anna H S (math 58% / reading 57%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,405 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KHA5QX3VKDY7J7
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29