44 Juniper Trl

Clayton, GA 30525

$419,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,628/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#197 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rabun County (rural): math 42% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #37 of 174 in GA (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rabun County Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #435 of 1,228 statewide, top 37%, 660 students, 58% FRL); Rabun County Middle School (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #94 of 470 statewide, top 20%, 342 students, 59% FRL); Rabun County High School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #26 of 424 statewide, top 6%, 653 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 147 units permitted in Rabun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rabun County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $365k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.