2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,000 sqft ·
Built —
· Land
· Active
· 265 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,023/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$334
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$425
Net cashflow
$609/mo
Annual
$7,313/yr
Cap rate
13.35%
Cash-on-cash
25.19%
DSCR
2.12
1% rule
1.62%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Westpark Elementary (940 students, 78% FRL); Tropico Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 782 students, 80% FRL); Rosamond High Early College Campus (913 students, 83% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KJ0V8A76KZ9DH9
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29