8711 S Loop Blvd

California City, CA 93505

$248,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,169/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $451/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $69,692

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($451/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 19 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.2% in California City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.