2524 Sam Wilson St

Houston, TX 77020

$225,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,223
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-92/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $65,276

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-92/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atherton El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 433 students, 96% FRL); Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.