Athena Plan

Kyle, TX 78656

$262,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 791 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,874/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,619
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-654/mo
• Annual: $-7,843/yr
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.07%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $86,467

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-654 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 791 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 791 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.