5130 Lost Dutchman Dr

Stonecrest, GA 30038

$205,000B-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,092 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,217/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $555/mo
• Annual: $6,655/yr
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.59%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flat Rock Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 996 students, 100% FRL); Salem Middle School (math 5% / reading 16%, grade F, #429 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 988 students, 100% FRL); Martin Luther King- Jr. High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,440 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dekalb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.