2013 County Road 3

Kerhonkson, NY 12461

$575,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,178/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$803
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $-1,308/mo
• Annual: $-15,693/yr
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.75%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (40.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (44.7% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($558k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.