1201 W Thornton Pkwy

Thornton, CO 80260

$149,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $575/mo
• Annual: $6,898/yr
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.53%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in CO, #2,583 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Mor Elementary School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #824 of 966 statewide, top 88%, 367 students, 69% FRL); Northglenn Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #246 of 270 statewide, top 91%, 684 students, 85% FRL); Northglenn High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #257 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,959 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 33% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Adams 12 Five Star Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 22 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 129% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $123k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.