4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,324 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 136 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,784/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,416
Tax + insurance
−$865
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,005
Net cashflow
$1,498/mo
Annual
$17,973/yr
Cap rate
12.95%
Cash-on-cash
23.77%
DSCR
2.06
1% rule
1.77%
Cash to close
$75,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $270k).
It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#152 in NJ, #3,974 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
Lawnside School Distric (suburban): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #566 of 612 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29