4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,412 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,237/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,674
Tax + insurance
−$793
HOA
−$48
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$680
Net cashflow
$-958/mo
Annual
$-11,500/yr
Cap rate
4.04%
Cash-on-cash
-8.05%
DSCR
0.64
1% rule
0.63%
Cash to close
$142,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $510k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-958 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (33.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (36.5% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($495k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $324k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $400k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$88k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KN3RJA1SCAX14Q
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29