5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,307 sqft ·
Built 1904
· Other
· Active
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,347/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$204
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$283
Net cashflow
$520/mo
Annual
$6,238/yr
Cap rate
15.89%
Cash-on-cash
34.28%
DSCR
2.53
1% rule
2.07%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,184 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Anna Jonesboro Chsd 81 (town): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #623 of 919 in IL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Lincoln Elem School (219 students, 0% FRL); Anna Junior High School (math 11% / reading 44%, grade F, #295 of 665 statewide, top 45%, 238 students, 0% FRL); Anna-Jonesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 497 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $48k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 5.6% in Anna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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