4632 Vignette Way

Lake Sarasota, FL 34240

$275,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,758 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,503/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$127
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-181/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-181/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#365 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tatum Ridge Elementary School (math 74% / reading 73%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 834 students, 29% FRL); Mcintosh Middle School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 851 students, 64% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.7%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $226k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.