2514 Thayer St

Saginaw, MI 48601

$3,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1894 · SingleFamily · Pending · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16
• Tax + insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $611/mo
• Annual: $7,335/yr
• Cap rate: 250.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 873.24%
• DSCR: 39.85
• 1% rule: 26.67%
• Cash to close: $840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $3k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $3k).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1894 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (62%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $840 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 250.8% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1894 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.