312 S Vine St

Carmichaels, PA 15320

$115,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,203 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,036/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $881/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($881/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (9.9% below list).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,344 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carmichaels Area SD (rural): math 17% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #465 of 539 in PA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $115k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.