911 6th St

Lynchburg, VA 24504

$190,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,276 sqft · Built 1817 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,615/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1817 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $190k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1817 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.