2933 Crestwood Dr NW

Warren, OH 44485

$149,999C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,234 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $145/mo
• Annual: $1,745/yr
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (5.9% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $141k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $150k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.0% in Warren — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $1,411/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.