220 S Madera Ave #23

Kerman, CA 93630

$99,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,729/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $789/mo
• Annual: $9,462/yr
• Cap rate: 15.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.13%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#802 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kerman Unified (town): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #347 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $99k implies a 421% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.2% in Kerman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.