3998 Castro Valley Blvd #34

Castro Valley, CA 94546

$65,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,168/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,264/mo
• Annual: $15,163/yr
• Cap rate: 29.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.31%
• DSCR: 4.71
• 1% rule: 3.34%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#129 in CA, #4,461 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Castro Valley Unified (suburban): math 60% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #60 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 1.8% in Castro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.