1216 Vail Dr Unit 15b

Grovetown, GA 30813

$212,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,162 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,692/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax + insurance: −$353
• HOA: −$246
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-374/mo
• Annual: $-4,489/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.56%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $59,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Euchee Creek Elementary School (math 53% / reading 42%, grade D, #298 of 1,228 statewide, top 24%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 981 students, 39% FRL); Harlem High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,223 students, 33% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.