2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,017 sqft ·
Built 1995
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,343/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$458
HOA
−$350
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$702
Net cashflow
$391/mo
Annual
$4,686/yr
Cap rate
8.00%
Cash-on-cash
6.09%
DSCR
1.27
1% rule
1.22%
Cash to close
$77,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $275k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Catalina Foothills Unified District (4410) (suburban): math 55% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #15 of 249 in AZ (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Canyon View Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #127 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 394 students, 17% FRL); Esperero Canyon Middle School (math 45% / reading 56%, grade C, #25 of 218 statewide, top 11%, 501 students, 13% FRL); Catalina Foothills High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #29 of 381 statewide, top 8%, 1,887 students, 11% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.4% in Catalina Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KR7F8H3V05EDHF
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29