45 Camp Cir

Winchendon, MA 03447

$130,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $600/mo
• Annual: $7,197/yr
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.77%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#125 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Monadnock Regional School District (rural): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #82 of 98 in NH (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. George S. Emerson Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #179 of 263 statewide, top 71%, 163 students, 23% FRL); Monadnock Regional Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #77 of 96 statewide, top 81%, 254 students, 38% FRL); Monadnock Regional High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #69 of 90 statewide, top 78%, 454 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.2% in Winchendon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.