302 Phillip

Wharton, TX 77488

$125,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$537
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-931/yr
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-931/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (11.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#693 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wharton ISD (town): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #651 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wharton El (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 476 students, 77% FRL); Wharton J H (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 369 students, 77% FRL); Wharton H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Wharton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.