2814 58th Way E

Ellenton, FL 34221

$414,900F

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,227 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$692
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-594/mo
• Annual: $-7,130/yr
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,172

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,966/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.