812 S Grand Ave

Lyons, KS 67554

$71,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $852/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$372
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,192/yr
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.03%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $19,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $71k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $71k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $491 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#207 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lyons (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #136 of 169 in KS (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Rice County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rice County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $71k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.