406 N Rancho

Nixon, TX 78140

$130,000C-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $87/mo
• Annual: $1,046/yr
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $672 of equity ($899 loan paydown + $-227 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#878 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nixon-Smiley CISD (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #451 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.