Cedar Plan

Choptank, MD 21643

$344,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,903 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,031
• Tax + insurance: −$645
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-741/mo
• Annual: $-8,894/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.20%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $108,429

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-741 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#435 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Warwick Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #297 of 860 statewide, top 38%, 347 students, 100% FRL); North Dorchester Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #147 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 415 students, 100% FRL); North Dorchester High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 572 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dorchester County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.