Blakely Plan

Moores Mill, AL 35811

$257,150F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 244 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,893/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,555
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-554/mo
• Annual: $-6,647/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.00%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $83,031

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $257k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-554 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#109 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 560 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.