256 Blackberry

Dayton, OH 45431

$15,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$685
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,351/yr
• Cap rate: -2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -32.16%
• DSCR: -0.43
• 1% rule: 5.71%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($856 rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 80% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 237 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate -2.7% vs local median 5.5% in Dayton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 12% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Exterior siding — Weathered appearance.
• Minor: Interior paint — Faded appearance.
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown grass and weeds need trimming.