1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
800 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 246 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,774/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$509
Tax + insurance
−$197
HOA
−$581
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$372
Net cashflow
$114/mo
Annual
$1,372/yr
Cap rate
7.71%
Cash-on-cash
5.05%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.83%
Cash to close
$27,160
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $97k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#15 in FL, #411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Garrison-Jones Elementary School (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 593 students, 46% FRL); Dunedin Highland Middle School (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C+, #213 of 571 statewide, top 38%, 899 students, 53% FRL); Dunedin High School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,203 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 482 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $56k; list at $97k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Dunedin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KV3HVWBNAVZW5Y
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29