3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,383 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,784/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$860
Tax + insurance
−$150
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$375
Net cashflow
$400/mo
Annual
$4,804/yr
Cap rate
9.22%
Cash-on-cash
10.47%
DSCR
1.47
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$45,892
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $154k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#503 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Beulaville Elementary (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,410 statewide, top 64%, 822 students, 100% FRL); East Duplin High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 861 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Duplin County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $65k; list at $164k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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